As beef prices remain high while the national cattle herd slowly regains its size after years of decline, one food expert says Canadians are being forced to play a “waiting game” when it comes to relief at the grocery store meat counte

According to a Statistics Canada report from last February, the number of cattle in Canada fell to the lowest levels for a third consecutive year, and that as of Jan. 1, Canadian farmers held 10.9 million cattle and calves on their farms, down 0.7 per cent from the same date in 2024.

Mike von Massow, a professor in the department of food, agriculture and resource economics at the University of Guelph, told CTV’s Your Morning on Tuesday that the harsh weather conditions in Western Canada and the U.S. Midwest have compounded the problem.

“With dry weather, you have less feed, you have less pasture, and so it’s more difficult to maintain the cattle herd,” he said.

 “It is a waiting game as the herd gets rebuilt but we’ll continue to see some imports that will moderate those increases to a degree”

 

Von Massow explained that when feed is scarce, maintaining cattle becomes expensive and difficult, forcing producers to reduce numbers.

“Cows are the factory of the beef industry. If you have fewer cows, you have fewer calves, and fewer calves means less beef,” he said.

Von Mossow says that cows must first be born, raised to breeding age and then have a calf, so even as numbers begin to grow again, it will be years before that additional production fully translates to greater beef availability.

Driver of food inflation

Despite overall inflation stabilizing in late 2025, Canadians continue to feel the squeeze at the grocery store with food prices rising faster.

StatCan data shows annual inflation held at 2.2 per cent in November, but grocery prices that same month were up 4.7 per cent year-over-year. The increase in November was the largest since December 2023.

Much of that pressure comes from meat, which was up 7.2 per cent this year and is projected to rise another five to seven per cent next year, according to the latest Food Price Report produced by several Canadian universities.

Von Massow says beef’s popularity is keeping prices high.

“We like beef. People are changing the kinds of beef they eat,” he said. ”We’re seeing a lot more ground beef getting eaten and fewer steaks.

“We also still have export customers who are who are keen to pay for beef … it’s not like it’s just Canadian domestic demand that’s impacting prices,” he continued.

Cattle graze at sunset near Cochrane, Alta., on Thursday, June 8, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

Export demand

According to a Beef Farmers of Ontario report from last year, 51 per cent of the total beef and cattle produced in Canada was exported in 2023.

Export demand and shifting consumer preferences continue to keep pressure on limited supplies, von Massow said.

The report outlined that three-quarters of Canada’s beef exports goes to the U.S. (75.2 per cent), while around nine per cent go to Japan and 6.5 per cent to Mexico.

In terms of Canada’s beef imports, 53 per cent are from the U.S., while just under 11 per cent come from Australia and around 10 per cent are from New Zealand.

“We have existing relationships, and the truth is that if we shut them off, we might not get them back,” von Massow said, adding that a lot of what comes into the country goes to Eastern Canada, while the majority of what comes out is from Western Canada.

He also says that sometimes, export demand helps us, because they’re taking some cuts that aren’t necessarily as popular in Canada.

Whether or not relief is coming, von Massow said time will tell.

“It is a waiting game as the herd gets rebuilt. I expect we’ll continue to see some imports that will moderate those increases to a degree,” he said.

“The gap can’t get too big.”