With newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump reiterating his threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian imports, the beef industry is bracing for possible disruptions

To help unpack the complexities of this evolving situation, Mastel is joined by Brenna Grant, Executive Director of Canfax Research Services, who provides expert insights into the potential impacts, challenges, and opportunities ahead.

Grant explains that Canada’s beef trade relationship with the U.S. is deeply integrated, going back to the 1989 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, and further expanded through the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994.

While 44 per cent of Canadian beef production heads to the U.S. annually, many people forget that trade flows both ways — Canada imports approximately 300,000 head of feeder cattle each year from the U.S. The proposed tariffs could potentially reduce export volumes, driving U.S. beef prices higher and creating ripple effects across the entire supply chain.

 “Exporters need to evaluate long-term packer strategies and weigh whether the tariffs will be a short-term disruption or a longer-term challenge”

 

One of the major factors to consider is the role of exchange rates. As Grant points out, the Canadian dollar has already weakened by 6 per cent since October 1st, 2024, largely in response to tariff concerns. While a lower dollar makes Canadian beef more competitive in global markets, it also increases input costs for producers who import feed products such as corn and dried distillers grains (DDGs) from the U.S.

Despite the uncertainty, Canadian cattle producers have options. Brenna discusses the potential to expand exports into alternative markets such as Japan, Korea, and other Asian countries, where demand for high-quality, grain-fed beef remains strong. However, shifting focus to these markets requires careful consideration — exporters need to evaluate long-term packer strategies and weigh whether the tariffs will be a short-term disruption or a longer-term challenge.

Another area of opportunity lies within Canada’s domestic market. With the Canadian population growing by 2.4 million people over the past two years, there’s potential to boost local beef consumption. However, tapping into this market isn’t without its challenges — new consumer preferences, cultural influences, and price sensitivity all play a role in shaping demand.

When it comes to managing the financial impact on tariffs, Brenna stresses the importance of proactive risk management. She advises producers to utilize tools like price insurance, futures market hedging, and Canfax’s market reports to stay informed and protect their operations. In an inflationary environment, keeping a close eye on production costs and exploring ways to optimize efficiency will be critical for maintaining profitability.

As Mastel and Brenna wrap up the conversation, they leave producers with an important message — focus on what you can control. While market volatility and political decisions remain out of their hands, producers can take strategic steps to safeguard their businesses and navigate these uncertain times.

Check out the first episode of the third season of The Bovine podcast, where host Kara Mastel tackles one of the many concerns facing Canadian cattle producers today — potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. Listen HERE.