Support Within U.S. for NAFTA Still Cause for Optimism

The Canadian Global Affairs Institute suggests despite escalating protectionism in the United States, support within the U.S. for NAFTA remains strong

by Bruce Cochrane – FarmScape Online

Escalating trade tensions resulting from U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, and the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products have added to the uncertainty over the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“Concessions would only come if we could reach a deal on the big issues, particularly as it relates to dispute settlement”

Collin Robertson, the Vice-President and a Fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, told FarmScape Online that the NAFTA negotiations are essentially on hold until the new year, after Mexico’s new President takes office, and the conclusion of U.S. mid-term elections.

“We’re into negotiations even though they’re essentially stalled and so that would be about the only sign of optimism I can see.

“The U.S. public supports NAFTA but now there is a large number of elected representatives, both in Congress and at the state level, particular amongst Governors, who recognize the importance of NAFTA to their economies.

“That is a positive because when we began the negotiations you could have probably counted the number of legislators that supported NAFTA on one or two hands.

“But now support is significant so that’s room for optimism but reaching a deal is going to be really tough and that’s where I become pessimistic because we have not seen any movement by the Trump administration on three of the key issues; dispute settlement, sunset clause and we still have to work out rules of origin.

“There are some other issues, supply management and the rest where the administration is pushing Canada to make significant concessions, but again those concessions would only come if we could reach a deal on the big issues, particularly as it relates to dispute settlement and the duration of the agreement.

Robertson says we are into much more complicated times and unfortunately the tide of protectionism is increasing not decreasing.